It’s tournament time in the NCAA baseball world.
Like 63 other teams this past Monday, the Clemson baseball team found its opponents for the double-elimination opening round at Doug Kingsmore Stadium, facing High Point first before playing either Vanderbilt or Coastal Carolina in the following game.
While the bats have been consistently productive for head coach Erik Bakich and his squad, one aspect of the Tigers’ game has plagued them throughout the season: pitching.
Friday vs. High Point
The only game that Clemson fans know for sure is this Friday, where the Tigers will face High Point in the opening round of the Regional. The Panthers are hot, winning their respective Big South Championship at home to earn an automatic berth into the tournament. However, the team has only played an ACC team twice this season, losing both times to Wake Forest.
With that, we already know who Clemson will bring out to the mound: lefty Tristan Smith.
The sophomore has been beat up recently but has the velocity to take control of a contest. Fans want his start against Duke repeated, where he fanned 10 batters while only allowing one run. While I expect Clemson to play the final team that it has not played in their group yet (so, either Coastal Carolina or Vanderbilt), I see Smith going four innings; where he has mostly stayed around in his time as a starter.
With an ERA of 4.17, the lefty needs to be productive if the Tigers want to come out of this group with the potential to host a Super Regional. Playing a Panthers team that has given up more than 10 runs in over 15 games this season, I see Clemson being able to have the run support to be successful with Smith.
Behind Smith, there are a few ways to go, especially if the sophomore is unable to get past the third or fourth-inning. If a long reliever is needed, Bakich could go back to what he did against Miami with Lucas Mahlstedt, who pitched four innings in relief and allowed only one run. The junior has pitched two or more innings in over half of his appearances with the Tigers this season.
Jacob McGovern has been a head-turner for me as of late, coming into the Clemson Regional with a 1.93 ERA in his nine appearances. If Smith can make it farther than five or six innings, I like McGovern’s chances of playing on Friday.
I think all of these games end the same way, though. Matthew Marchal or Austin Gordon should round out the pitching rotation, no matter what. Relief pitchers Rob Hughes and Nick Clayton could be other options in setup or close if the depth gets thin, but if the game is close, I would expect one of the first two players mentioned to play, while the other gets an inning or two in the next game.
Against a High Point team that likes to give up runs, I expect the game to be high-scoring, with the Clemson bats being a huge help to this pitching staff. Smith was the name that Bakich decided on, which is a solid option to start the hunt for a College World Series berth.
Game 2 vs. Vanderbilt/Coastal Carolina
No matter what happens in this game, whether the Tigers win or lose, I expect them to go out with Aidan Knaak in the second game. Whether it is a must-win from a High Point loss or to put the team in a better position after a win, Clemson will use its First Team All-ACC pitcher.
The freshman standout holds a 2.96 ERA throughout the season, but high-quality ball clubs have found success against him. Knaak has given up six earned runs twice, against Wake Forest and Florida State, two other tournament teams. If he plays at a high level like he did against Duke, it could be looking bright spot for Clemson.
Depending on how Knaak pitches and how many innings he goes, similar to Darden, there are a few routes to go. I have not mentioned Drew Titsworth yet, but he has a 3.26 ERA for the season and could get an inning or two in either game this weekend, depending on how close these games are. He has been an asset to the team when he has been on the mound, and I see him being called upon in the closer games this weekend.
If Knaak is knocked out early, a reliever I like with experience as a starter is Billy Barlow. A weekday starter generally, the redshirt sophomore has had two outstanding appearances in relief in May, pitching in more than three innings in both while allowing no more than two runs in either appearance.
With a 4.34 ERA and confidence in the bullpen, he joins Mahlstedt in the tier of a reliever that can soak up the middle innings, if needed. While being a help in the bullpen could be an option, I would not be surprised if he started one of these games, especially if the Tigers will need to play a fourth if they get there.
Reed Garris is another help for Clemson, who I see featured in the Tigers’ second game, which should be a much closer matchup than High Point. When Garris is on, he is firing, holding a WHIP of 1.00. Another setup guy for the Tigers, any combination of him/Gordon/Marchal could be how Bakich finishes out Game 2 for Clemson.
Game 3 vs. TBD
Game 3 could be against any of these three teams, bases on what goes on in the Clemson Regional this weekend. While no scheduled opponent could be tough to decide who goes out with a start, I think Clemson should go out with Ethan Darden.
The sophomore has taken over as a weekend starter down the stretch of the season, holding an ERA of 5.04 over the course of the season. The trouble with Darden, however, is the ability to struggle as a starter and being knocked out early, as four of his ten starts have him pitching three innings or less. He is coming off back-to-back starts under this threshold, including throwing only 1.1 innings against Miami in the ACC Tournament.
I see Darden bouncing back, pitching between five and six innings in this third game. While allowing runs is inevitable, I think the sophomore will have the run support needed to keep this game close.
I think a choice of either Mahlstedt or Barlow could work in following Darden, as both have done so in his previous starts. If either could pitch two or more innings, which they both do quite efficiently, Clemson could be very successful in the first six innings of this game.
I could also see Rocco Reid in this spot, who’s last two appearances were as a starter for Clemson. The junior did a solid job in the middle of the season in relief, lowering his ERA to as low as 2.53 in March. However, in his only two starts, the lefty gave up two and four runs, respectively. He fits better as an efficient reliever, soaking up middle innings, like Barlow and Mahlstedt.
I think a lot more pitchers could be featured here. McGovern has been on fire and I hope that Bakich uses him throughout this postseason. Garris could make another appearance for an inning. Justin LeGuernic has not been brought up yet, but he has had some quality appearances out of the bullpen as a freshman in recent games.
Finishing this game off with a choice of Clayton, Gordon, Hughes and Marchal (though I think Marchal or Gordon may finish this game) will most likely also be the case, like the other games when I mentioned them.
Overall, Bakich has some choices to make in terms of who Clemson should put on the mound this weekend. There are some obvious choices to make, while others are a little more difficult with the uncertainty of who the team is playing. With how the season has progressed and who has been the best in certain times, this is what I believe could be one of the ways that the Tigers use to get to the Super Regional of the NCAA Tournament.
